Olive Oil Trade 2026: Türkiye and Tunisia Change the Map

Two harvests decided this market. Türkiye produced around 505,000 tonnes, an increase of roughly 135%, and Tunisia came in near 340,000 tonnes, up about 55%. Add a solid Spanish crop and the shortage that defined olive oil pricing for two years is over. Buyers who spent 2024 accepting whatever they could get are back in control, and sellers who have not adjusted their pitch are about to find out.

The supply picture

Spain remains the anchor, but the shape of the rest of the table has changed materially.

Türkiye moving to half a million tonnes puts it clearly ahead of Italy and within reach of being a structural rather than occasional exporter. Tunisia at 340,000 tonnes has similar significance: it has long been a large bulk supplier into Europe, and a strong crop there directly pressures Spanish and Italian pricing because much of that volume is blended and re-exported under European brands.

Why the price spread matters more than the price

Look at March 2026 wholesale levels and the gap between Italy at $5.59 and Greece at $4.23 per kilo is over thirty percent. That spread is not quality alone. It reflects brand value, packaging, and the fact that a large share of Italian-labelled oil is blended from imported bulk.

For a buyer, the spread is the opportunity: sourcing bulk from a lower-cost origin and packing closer to the end market is the entire business model of several large European operators. For a producer in Türkiye, Tunisia or Morocco, it is a warning: selling bulk into that chain means capturing the low end of the spread permanently. The producers who have moved up are the ones who invested in packing, certification and direct buyer relationships rather than selling tanker loads to a blender.

In olive oil the money is not in the olives. It is in whose label goes on the bottle.

Where the buyers are

Three distinct buyer pools, and they behave nothing alike:

• Bulk blenders and packers in Italy, Spain and Portugal buy tanker volumes on price and basic spec. Large, fast, low margin, and the default destination for new production.
• Retail and private label buyers in non-producing markets, principally the United States, Brazil, Canada, the UK and increasingly the Gulf, buy packed product on brand, certification and consistency. Slower to win, far better margin.
• Food service and industrial users buy mid-size lots on functional specification and price stability, and they value supply continuity over origin story.

The growth is in the second group. The United States, Brazil and Canada are the non-producing markets driving volumetric expansion, and Gulf demand has been rising with both population and premium retail. The UAE food importers guide covers how that regional buyer base works.

Quality and fraud, which are commercial issues

Olive oil is one of the most adulterated food commodities in the world, and buyers know it. That cuts both ways for an exporter. It means every serious importer runs analysis on arrival and will reject a lot without argument. It also means that a supplier with a consistent testing record, clear traceability and a clean history is genuinely differentiated in a way that is hard to copy quickly.

The practical implication is to lead with evidence rather than with price, particularly when entering a new market. A buyer who has been burned once will pay a premium never to repeat it.

Where the 2026 opportunity sits

Turkish and Tunisian producers have volume to place and need routes beyond bulk sale into Europe, which makes them natural partners for distributors in the Gulf, Asia and North America looking for competitive supply. Buyers in non-producing markets have more negotiating room than they have had in two years and should be re-tendering now rather than rolling contracts. And packers anywhere have a favourable raw material position for the first time since 2023.

If you are mapping the Mediterranean supply base, Spanish trade flows and Moroccan trade flows are the companion pieces, since both countries sit on either side of this trade as producer and processor.

Certification, and what actually gets checked

Olive oil buyers run more analysis than buyers of almost any other food commodity, and the tests are not a formality. Free fatty acid content, peroxide value and the ultraviolet absorbency figures decide whether a lot is legally extra virgin in the destination market, and those values move with storage and time rather than staying where they were at pressing.

Two practical points follow. First, a certificate issued at origin three months before shipment tells the buyer very little, and sophisticated buyers will test on arrival regardless. Build that into your expectations rather than treating it as distrust. Second, sensory panel assessment is a legal requirement in several markets and is genuinely subjective at the margin, which means borderline lots carry real commercial risk.

Protected designation schemes and organic certification each add a documentation layer and each command a premium, but only where the destination market recognises the scheme. Verify recognition before you price the premium into an offer.

How ShipScout helps

Harvest forecasts tell you Türkiye produced 505,000 tonnes. They do not tell you who is buying it. ShipScout does, with 11B+ shipment records across 240+ countries:

1. Find olive oil importers by market, ranked by volume, separating bulk buyers from packed-product buyers.
2. See each buyer's origin mix and spot the ones shifting toward the new Turkish and Tunisian supply.
3. Track bulk flows into blending markets so you know where your volume actually ends up.
4. Pull decision-maker contacts where available and lead with the buyer's own import record.

Start a free trial and pull the buyer list for your grade and format.